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What explains the 2020 spike in murders in the United States?

Last week the Federal Bureau of Investigation released the most recent crime statistics and it revealed a surprising finding; the number of murders (21,500) which occurred last year (2020) was the highest it has ever been since 1960. Meanwhile, most other crimes, for which data is systematically collected, decreased.

Keep in mind that last year was unique as we were in the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there were numerous protests across the country, most of which were in support of Defunding or Abolishing the Police, Black Lives Matter, and in reaction to the murder of George Floyd at the hands of a Minneapolis police officer, and other similar deaths of unarmed African-American men and women (e.g., Breonna Taylor) at the hands of police officers.

That being said, I’m neither suggesting nor implying that the protests or bail reform efforts, caused an increase in homicide. That’s too simplistic.

But what explains the rise of murder, a type of crime where the statistics are the most reliable?

Here are six possible reasons why this increase might have occurred.

To begin with, there may be more availability of guns on the street. Not only is there data to support the increase in gun sales, but some commentators have suggested that a certain percentage of the population used their stimulus check to purchase guns. Keep in mind that these sales were disproportionately from fearful white middle class people who live in the suburbs.

Alternatively, the guns that were used in homicides may be of better quality. Many of the guns on the street are of low quality, typically used to threaten a potential victim of a robbery and not necessarily because it will be fired. By default, brand new guns, on the other hand, are of better quality.

Additionally, another reason why homicides may have increased in 2020 is that people using the guns have become better skilled at using them. Shooters may have had more time on their hands to improve their ability to use these weapons.

Moreover, the situations in which guns are used may have increased, thus there may have more domestic violence (e.g.., families living in close proximity for longer periods of time), gang activity, including competition for scarce markets.

Another possible reason for the spike in homicides is that first responders, especially EMTs may have been slower to get to gun-shot victims. Why? They were tied up with COVID-19 related patients, and thus the times between dispatch and arrival on the scene may have been slower. Thus, a certain percentage of victims of shootings may have died because of slower response times. A similar situation may have occurred in the emergency departments of our hospitals that were crowded with COVID-19 patients.

Finally, a decrease in trust in the criminal justice system in general, and police in particular to “serve and protect” may have pushed some members of the public to handle their disputes with others on their own and resort to gun violence.

Regardless these are all speculations regarding the increase in the murder rate in 2020. Until we get a better handle on who the shooters and victims are, especially finding out why they decided to pull the trigger, we will probably not really know for sure why there was an increase last year.

Title of photo: Crime Scene Patrol Cars
Photographer: F. Muhammad

Documenting and analyzing Graffiti and Street Art in connection with COVID-19

Almost every major political or social development seems to inspire individuals to write graffiti or street art.

Over the past two years, a considerable amount of graffiti and street art has been produced in connection with the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer, the Black Lives Movement, protests against racist memorials and monuments, and dissatisfaction with former President Trump, his family and administration, and with similar right-wing populist leaders throughout the world (e.g., Bolsonaro).

The public has also witnessed graffiti and street art in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic that has raged throughout the world for the past year-and-a-half. Many of us have seen the images of graffiti and street art connected to the pandemic in the news media, in particular print media (especially newspapers and magazines) and via social media websites like Instagram.

Why has this occurred? In part, there has been an increased availability of urban public space for graffiti writers and street artists to do their work as many retail businesses temporarily or permanently closed, and the windows of their shops have been covered by plywood, thus providing more available canvasses. Even the temporary shelters that many restaurants have erected on sidewalks and streets have been hit by taggers. In NYC alone, in 2019 the city cut its budget in graffiti and street art eradication.

Short of a full accounting of COVID-19 graffiti and street art, researchers Heather Shirey & David Todd Lawrence are trying to achieve, there are a number of recurrent themes that these Coronavirus images play on like fear, frustration, hope, mourning, solidarity, and thanks to front line health care workers like doctors and nurses.

Many of the images are of people, some of them iconic (e.g., Bill Gates, Vincent Van Gough, Steve Jobs, etc.) wearing face masks, protective gloves or other assorted Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). A smattering of graffiti and street art images have superman logos painted on them. Other pieces involve a cataloguing of previous pandemics in order to contextualize the current one that we are experiencing. Some of the work approaching street art have sheets draped as masks in front of murals, street art or graffiti depicting images of people. Otherwise pieces are monochromatic, while others are multicolored.

Most of the content about graffiti and street art and COVID produced by the news media mainly contain images. Few of them provide analyses. But recent scholarship is changing all this. There are now a handful of interesting pieces of scholarship, published in scholarly journals like Crime, Media, Culture, the Nuart Journal, and Visual Studies, that are addressing the graffiti and street art of COVID.

It is through this kind of scholarly analysis that we will have a deeper and richer understanding of the graffiti and street art produced during this time period.

Photo Credit
Photographer: duncan
Title: Coronavirus graffiti, Leake Street

How to tank a state’s economy

In an ideal situation, through the combined processes of immigration, innovation, and productivity, each of the 50 state’s economies grow, and the various types of taxes collected from residents, tourists, businesses, and organizations are used to fund infrastructure projects, educational initiatives, and the overall health and well-being of the community.

Over the last four years, however, the likelihood of this ideal scenario, seems further from reality in many states. It’s not just the devastating economic effects of COVID-19 on the respective economies of each state but there are larger forces at play.

I’m sure it was not planned as such, but the governors and legislators of many Republican dominated states (e.g., Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Dakota, Texas. etc.), bolstered by Trumpism, and narrow interpretations of personal freedom, have opposed COVID-19 lockdowns, mask mandates, mandatory vaccinations, and encouraged political gerrymandering favoring Republican districts, and soon restrictions on a woman’s right to have an abortion like what has most recently happened in Texas.

In the long run this political battle is bound to backfire.

These Red states are making it increasingly inhospitable to liberals and progressives who live there, and for people and corporations who are considering opening a business or sustaining one in that state. It’s also giving pause to some out of state tourists to reconsider their plans to visit.

Sure liberals and progressives will always live in college towns located in these states, or cities that have longstanding arts and music scenes like Austin or Nashville, but they are frequently reminded that they are surrounded by hostile forces.

Although some corporations in Red states, because of COVID-19 have made the transition to remote work, and those workers who are not happy with the state’s mandates have high tailed it out of there, those at the top will probably have to stay. But we are now seeing large high tech corporations considering moving out of Republican dominated states.

If the Republican Governors and state legislatures continue to have their way only people who can’t afford to leave will remain. This population is largely older, unskilled, poor and the unemployed. A large number in the high tech sector that leads the way in economic growth and prosperity will leave or never come.

But look at the bright side. In another decade or so, the property values of residential and commercial real estate in those Republican dominated states will be comparatively low, and the unemployment rates should be high. This means that those states might be conducive for low wage low skill manufacturing entities (if they have not completely moved off shore) to briefly relocate there (like they did in North Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia two decades ago) to take advantage of the economic climate.

Republicans might temporarily feel smug about winning the battle, but in the end not the war.

Photo Credit:

Photographer: Ed Schipul
Title: Texas State Capital Building