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Crystal balls and midterm elections

In just under a month, on the first Tuesday in November, the United States will have a midterm election.

This process enables registered voters to chose members of Congress, Senators, Governors, State Legislators, County Executives and Mayors whose terms are up.

Although not as important as the election for president, which is held every four years, midterms can’t be ignored.

In many respects the 2022 midterm is the most important election that the United States has faced since the 2020 election and the January 6th insurrection.

Over the past two years we have seen a disgraced former president (bogged down with numerous legal challenges), and several elected Republicans and MAGA supporters make false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. We have learned about attempts by MAGA supporters at the state and local level working behind the scenes to intimidate election workers and gain control of the election apparatus to enable their preferred candidates to win when off-year, midterm and presidential elections are held. We have also witnessed important civil liberties legislation (in connection with women’s reproductive rights and Americans voting rights) whittled away by the supreme court.

Unquestionably the outcome of the 2022 midterms might be an indicator of what might happen in 2024 when there will be a presidential race. Although both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have indicated that they will be running, numerous things, including the outcome of this upcoming midterm election, can happen between now and then which may prevent the pitting of Biden and Trump against each other.

In many respects the midterm election will be an indicator of public attitudes towards the achievements (or lack thereof) of Biden administration and the Democratic Party over the past two years, the health of the economy, the publics’ displeasure or insecurity surrounding the January 6th 2020 insurrection, and numerous other political developments.

Keep in mind that less Americans vote in midterm elections than they do in presidential elections. Moreover voting is only one of several way people can participate politically.

But let’s talk about possible outcomes at least at the federal level. If the Democrats manage to retain their slim majority in the senate and congress then in principle they will be able to hold on to the gains that they have achieved over the past two years and may even be able to advance other kinds of modest legislation.

On the other hand, if the Democrats lose enough seats in the senate and house, then this will set into a motion a situation where Biden’s progressive agenda will be stalled and little if no new pro Democratic laws will be passed at the federal level for the next two years. Why? The Republicans will now chair important committees, and try to block most if not all efforts by the Democrats for progressive change. For example, committees, like the one currently investigating the causes and participants in the January 6th 2020 insurrection will most likely be disbanded. Already respected political watchers like Politico are predicting that the congress will go to the republications

All hope, however, is not lost.

On the plus side there are a handful of key elections right now for Senate seats (including Wisconsin where Republican Ron Johnson is running, and Florida where Marco Rubio is running), that pit vocal Trump loyalists against Democrats. And if these senators lose, it means that some of the wind will be knocked out of the MAGA sails.

But there may be some surprises. Notwithstanding the Supreme court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and fears of legislation supporting a national ban on abortion that could be introduced in either house, both Biden and the Democrats have passed some very critical legislation (e.g., student loan forgiveness, and the pardoning of low level marijuana offenders). This may motivate the Democrat’s base to not only vote, but to assist with the elections of other Democrats in battleground races.

Regardless of the outcome of the midterm election, a number of key political events will probably occur shortly after that may have a more significant effect on the future of the United States. This includes some type of closure on the trial of Richard Rhodes, the leader of the Oath Keepers charged with seditious conspiracy., Also it’s quite likely that a number of indictments leveled not only against Trump, but other facilitators of the January 6th committee, may be issued, not to mention indictments against Trump in his handling of classified documents.

This may lead to things getting real ugly real quickly as Trump and MAGA supporters could feel like their last hopes for controlling the political agenda have been lost. This may lead to violent street protests and actions. On a positive note the political situation will likely not descend into utter chaos as the American public has a low tolerance of this sort of thing and will call upon both state and local law enforcement, fearing a repeat of the January 6th violence will respond with force and try to quell this kind of political activity.

photo credit: W Carter
“A staged mock setup of a person divining answers from a crystal ball in Lysekil, Sweden.”

“Have you ever considered consulting” and other unsolicited, well-meaning but unhelpful career advice

In the classic 1960s movie, The Graduate, Benjamin Braddock (played by Dustin Hoffman), who has recently completed university, attends his graduation party, and a friend of his parents takes him aside, places his arm around his shoulder and utters: “I have one word for you: Plastics.”

This scene has become the synecdoche for the all-knowing family member, relative, friend, acquaintance, or stranger (and people who we sometimes refer to as know-it-all’s) who freely and frequently dispense advice, with the belief that if only you follow it, your problems will be solved, and your life will be improved.

Many unqualified non-experts dispense unsolicited, well-meaning, but unhelpful advice. This guidance can cover the gambit from how to be a better parent, make fantastic margaritas, or how to protect oneself from COVID-19.

Predictably I have been the recipient of a considerable amount of non-expert professional and career advice.

Almost always this kind of counsel is very general in nature, and the advice giver knows considerably less than I do about my profession (i.e., academic), and the unique labor market in which it is situated (i.e., colleges and universities).

Over time, I have learned that instead of immediately rolling my eyes, interrupting the advice giver to point out just how poorly informed their suggestions are, and risk the possibility of offending them, like I used to, now I generally smile and feign interest, and try to change the subject.

Alternatively I attempt to find a polite way to disengage with that person as soon as possible.

This begs a couple of questions.

Why do some people proffer all sorts of free advice?

Some individuals truly do care, and they try their best to offer guidance that they think will be helpful.

Others simply want to show you (and perhaps others who learn about this behavior) “how smart they are.”

Alternatively advice givers may want to demonstrate to you and possibly others that they care. In short the activity is performative and symbolic in nature.

Many people want to be helpful as long as it is doesn’t require a large expenditure of resources. Unlike contacting a relative, best friend or acquaintance, and singing your praises to someone who may actually help you, or writing a meaningful letter of recommendation on your behalf, giving free advice is a low effort activity. Comparatively it’s not resource intensive.

Why is giving unsolicited advice a bad practice?

Most advice givers are not really familiar with your job, work, or career specializations. They also don’t know the unique job obligations, and the intricacies of the reward structure, including the requirements that one may have trying to secure an appropriate job, and then once this is done, what one has to do to excel in this kind of work.

Moreover, most recipients of unsolicited professional and career advice, have heard this type of guidance before and sometimes numerous times.

Uninformed advice givers often fail to acknowledge the recipient’s unique knowledge of their own job, career, profession and skill set. I’m not saying that advice givers must engage in the due diligence that a hiring manager should perform, including carefully studying a person’s vita, resume or bio, but this does not dissuade people from dispensing free advice.

Final Thoughts

Undoubtedly sometimes people can give you helpful advice that broadens your knowledge, skills and career prospects. This can be put to good use by people who are at the beginning of their career trajectory.

All in all, it’s important to avoid ascribing malice to individuals who frequently dispense unsolicited free advice. Thank them for their council, but learn not to take it too seriously. You are the one who is in the trenches, not them.

Meanwhile, if you are the type of a person who loves to give advice, try to restrain yourself unless you know the person wants it. Chances are the person you are speaking with has already knows about or has tried the solutions you are suggesting, and it may become grating over time.

Running at night as exercise, urban exploration, and street ethnography

Running, as a physical exercise, has numerous benefits.

One of the best things about this activity is that it’s low cost, and you can do it just about anywhere and anytime.

Up until recently, the majority of my running was done in urban environments, on the streets, and at night. Sometimes I used to run with our dog in tow.

Running in this context can and has periodically been an exhilarating experience.

Under the cloak of darkness and enabled by speed, I’ve been able to visit, explore, and take more risks by visiting neighborhoods and places (e.g., back alleys) that I might avoid on foot during the day or night.

Running at night has allowed me to see the city (in fact many urban locations) during different times when the lights are off, most people are at home, and typically everything is quieter and less observed.

In order to more comprehensively understand a part of town, visit it at 2am, listen to the sounds and noise, and feel the level of safety, etc. Almost immediately you should notice that some neighborhoods that are relatively docile during the day become foreboding at night, whereas others that are boring by day may be transformed and become welcoming when it’s dark outside. They are teaming with pedestrian traffic, and people sitting outside on door steps and on their porches.

Running at night has provided me with sneaky thrills when rodents and felines of all sizes unexpectedly cross my path, and occasionally barking and mean ass looking dogs have confronted, chased, and attacked me. Sometimes I’ve had to dodge both parked and moving cars, bicycles, and motorized scooters.

I’ve also been called names, yelled at (i.e., “Yo get the fuck outta here”), and chased by people (some very intimidating and some not so much) who appear to be angry, drunk, high, and provocative. Arguably, my running times improved because of these stressful experiences.

I’ve been lost a fair number of times too, forcing me to embarrassingly search for someone who I think might be able to help me, and who I also feel comfortable with asking for directions, even if this requires me to gesticulate in a foreign language.

In addition to stepping on shit, puke, and flattened rodents, and tripping multiple times, I’ve barrel rolled, face planted, and sprained my ankles (all on separate occasions). It’s times like this, with adrenaline rushing through my veins, when I have felt the most alive.

All in all running at night has been an informal and unconscious method of data collection. I get to see who is out on the street, what they’re doing, who they are interacting with, and make inferences regarding their behavior and the street culture that exists in those specific locations. Sometimes I find interesting graffiti, street art and murals. Running at night also gives me ideas about where I might like to explore in the future during the daylight hours.

This experience contrasts with the flaneur, especially the romantic notion of a person who walks the street seeping up what’s going in, periodically sitting down to collect oneself, observe, and to take notes in a sacred writing journal. It’s also not systematic like a street ethnography should be. But it’s data none the less and it helps form impressions, hypotheses to explore and investigate if one chooses to do so.

I miss running at night with the street lights, the sounds, smells and liminal aspects of the experience. I feel like I miss out on a side of city life and street culture that is so integral to understanding the people who live, visit and work there.

Photo Credit: Giuseppe Milo
The runner – Chicago, United States – Black and white street photography